Fantasy Baseball 2011 Rankings: First Base
It’s Super Bowl Sunday. I’m really fucking hungover. Don’t worry I made these rankings when I was sober. I also ranked 24 guys since a lot of you will be starting two first basemen somewhere on your rosters. I need a beer. So without further adieu, here we go with the deepest first base draft in a while.
TOP 24 First Basemen
Tier 1: Elite
1. Albert Pujols (110 R, 40 HR, 120 RBI, 10 SB, .325 AVG)
If I ranked him anywhere else I would just be doing it to be different, and I wouldn’t mess with you guys like that.
2. Joey Votto (105 R, 40 HR, 110 RBI, 15 SB, .315 AVG)
Tough choice between he and Cabrera. I could go with either one really but Votto will get you more SBs.
3. Miguel Cabrera (105 R, 40 HR, 125 RBI, 3 SB, .320 AVG)
Another beast. If you have any of the guys in Tier 1 you are sitting pretty.
Tier 2: Almost Elite
4. Adrian Gonzalez (100 R, 35 HR, 130 RBI, 0 SB, .290 AVG)
Buster Olney predicts that he will bat 4th in the order. I think he could easily hit 40 HRs at Fenway.
5. Mark Teixeira (110 R, 35 HR, 115 RBI, 0 SB, .290 AVG)
He’ll have a slow start (as always) but will put it together by year’s end.
6. Prince Fielder (100 R, 35 HR, 115 RBI, 0 SB, .290 AVG)
Contract year. Also (by total coincidence) he seems to have a good year every other year. If you’re superstitious this is a good year.
7. Ryan Howard (100 R, 35 HR, 105 RBI, 1 SB, .275 AVG)
A lower batting average than the others in this tier which is why he’s at the bottom, but he also has the potential to destroy my R, HR, and RBI projections here.
Tier 3: Can’t Go Wrong
8. Kevin Youkilis (105 R, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 5 SB, .310 AVG)
Youk is coming back from injury but don’t expect him to struggle for very long. The guy is consistent and will regularly get on base. With the improved lineup he is sure to pay dividends for your fantasy team.
9. Adam Dunn (85 R, 35 HR, 100 RBI, 0 SB, .255 AVG)
I think he has the chance to hit 40 HRs again, but his average will regress lower back to where it usually is.
10. Paul Konerko (90 R, 30 HR, 95 RBI, 0 SB, .280 AVG)
He had a banner year last year but his numbers will surely go down this year.
11. Kendry Morales (85 R, 25 HR, 95 RBI, 0 SB, .285 AVG)
These are pretty modest projections for a guy who could easily hit 30-35 HRs, especially since he will probably be protected by Vernon Wells in the lineup
12. Justin Morneau (85 R, 25 HR, 95 RBI, 0 SB, .275 AVG)
As Steve Gardner of USA Today Fantasy Windup points out, the dude is a wildcard.
Tier 4: Deep League Starters
13. Buster Posey (70 R, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 2 SB, .310 AVG)
A guy with so much upside, it’s stupid. Rank higher in keeper leagues
14. Carlos Pena (75 R, 30 HR, 90 RBI, 0 SB, .235 AVG)
Here’s a great analysis done over at FanGraphs of Pena’s 2010.
15. Aubrey Huff (90 R, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 3 SB, .285 AVG)
One of the cornerstones of the Giants World Series Championship run, Huff’s numbers will probably be worse this year, but I don’t think it will be by much
16. Carlos Lee (65 R, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 2 SB, .280 AVG)
El Caballo will have a bounce back year. You could do worse in the Util spot.
Tier 5: Sleeper Potential
17. Ike Davis (80 R, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 0 SB, .275 AVG)
I would definitely target Ike in the later rounds as a backup or even starter in a Utility role. He really put it together in the second half of last year and he has a shot of being one of the elite 1B for years to come.
18. Gaby Sanchez (70 R, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 5 SB, .280 AVG)
Similar to Ike Davis. Probably has less power potential though.
19. Billy Butler (80 R, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 0 SB, .310 AVG)
Butler is ranked a lot higher on most experts lists because many see him becoming an elite HR hitter. I think it’s inevitable that this will happen, but not this year.
20. Derrek Lee (85 R, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 1 SB, .275 AVG)
Derrek Lee is not dead. He’s very alive, and very ready to make an impact on the Orioles. Consider him a late round sleeper.
Tier 6: The Guys You Don’t Really Want
21. Michael Cuddyer (85 R, 15 HR, 75 RBI, 5 SB, .270 AVG)
22. Adam LaRoche (70 R, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 0 SB, .260 AVG)
23. Mike Napoli (65 R, 25 HR, 65 RBI, 0 SB, .245 AVG)
24. James Loney (65 R, 15 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB, .275 AVG)
BONUS: Keeper Sleepers
SUPER BONUS TWITTER POLL:
@fantasynewsman: Who is your favorite sleeper at 1B this year?
@DKulich44 Justin Smoak
Great pick. I didn’t include him here because he royally screwed me last year and I’m bitter. But this year maybe he’ll get back on my good side. You’re talking about a top prospect with a lot of potential.
@ROB_23 I think James Loney can take that next step.. Not huge power but it will increase and the avg will get bumped up.
Agreed, no power. But solid in R, RBI, and AVG.
@mzoom33 Matt LaPorta… Definite post-hype sleeper…
I will be taking him late in the draft, earlier in my keeper league. I advise you all to do the same.
@travisrgeorge cuddyer still 1b eligible?
He is, but I wouldn’t expect anything out of the ordinary from him.
@Sir_Bradford Carlos Pena
Definitely had an off year last year which will scare off most owners. There is a risk in drafting him but I happen to agree with you that he’ll bounce back.
Like my rankings and projections? Or am I smoking crack? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Thanks!
My Fantasy Baseball 2011 Rankings
Overall | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | DH | RP | SP | Prospects
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