Fantasy Baseball 2011 Rankings: Third Base

Blah blah blah, third base is shallow this year, blah. OK, rankings.

TOP 12 Third Basemen

Tier 1: Elite

1. Evan Longoria (100 R, 30 HR, 115 RBI, 15 SB, .290 AVG)

No explanation necessary. Right?

2. David Wright (95 R, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 20 SB, .300 AVG)

Last year he bounced back from a powerless 2009 with 29 bombs. He is one of the rare big power, big speed threats and at an especially thin 3B he should be one of the top picks off the board in the first round.

Tier 2: Almost Elite

3. Alex Rodriguez (85 R, 35 HR, 120 RBI, 5 SB, .295 AVG)

A-Rod gets fed popcorn in the second tier because he’s been a consistent power threat every year, but doesn’t have nearly the speed of Longoria or Wright.  However, he could blow past these projections, and even in an off year he will get you solid production.

4. Ryan Zimmerman (95 R, 30 HR, 95 RBI, 5 SB, .290 AVG)

Last year he wasn’t quite able to match his production from 2009 (110-33-106-2-.292), but he still put up a hell of a line, batting 85-25-85-4-.307.  I think this year will be somewhere in the middle.  His batting average benefited from a slightly lucky BABIP so it may come down a bit. Still, at only 26 years old he is on his way to being a Tier 1 3B.  Draft with confidence.

5. Kevin Youkilis (105 R, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 5 SB, .310 AVG)

Youuuuuuuuk played amazingly well before his 2010 season was cut short after 102 games with a freak thumb injury. He will qualify for 3B after a few games, so pick up a temporary sub until then. With an improved lineup he stands to put up huge numbers in 2011.  I think my projections are on the conservative side.

Tier 3: Expect Production

6. Jose Bautista (90 R, 35 HR, 95 RBI, 5 SB, .255 AVG)

Why is the dude who hit an MLB leading 54 bombs last year relegated to the third tier? Well honestly I could have put him in the second tier but I don’t want to look like an asshole when he only hits around 15 HRs like he did in each 4 years prior.  All joking aside, this is one of the tougher guys to project. He had absolutely nothing to indicate he would break out like he did in 2010, so how can one assume he can repeat again in 2011? Given that uncertainty he’s in the third tier, but I do expect him to do reasonably well in terms of R, HR, and RBI.  Not a bad selection at this point.  His OF eligibility also provides for some flexibility in your lineup since that position is shallow too.

7. Adrian Beltre (85 R, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 5 SB, .275 AVG)

He’s almost 32, and the fact that Beltre’s productive 2010 also happened to be a contract year has many wary of a 2005 repeat.   Whether that’s BS or not, the difference here is that Beltre is going to the Rangers killer lineup and even if he slacks off should still be productive for you.  I think he’ll have a slight drop off from 2010 but not by much.

Tier 4: Hope for Production

8. Casey McGehee (80 R, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 0 SB, .285 AVG)

In what was really his first full year in the majors last year he showed a lot of promise as a fantasy stud and provided solid production.  He definitely has the potential to move up into the third tier and have better than advertised RBI and AVG.

9. Mark Reynolds (75 R, 30 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB, .235 AVG)

His batting average kills your team.  Power is great, but you better have some guys batting .320+ to make up for this hit to your lineup (pardon the pun).  He suffered from an obscenely low BABIP of .257 last year to contribute to his .198 AVG, but with a 42.3% K rate what did you expect? I think he’ll improve his average to .235, but I still pass on him in favor of guys who won’t kill me in one category.

10. Pedro Alvarez (70 R, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 0 SB, .265 AVG)

A highly touted prospect for many years, Alvarez was on pace for big numbers his rookie year.  We are talking about a superstar in the making here, people.  If you are in a keeper league draft him ahead of the other guys in this tier, and maybe even ahead of the guys in tier 3.

Tier 5: Take a Chance

11. Martin Prado (110 R, 15 HR, 75 RBI, 5 SB, .305 AVG)

See my 2B ranking.

12. Pablo Sandoval (75 R, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB, .300 AVG)

The Big Fat Panda has allegedly slimmed down in the off season, and while we heard the same thing last spring training I have  a feeling that a full season of  misery has motivated Sandoval to stick to his diet this year.  On top of that he’s got all the talent to produce and a World Series title to defend.  That’s why I expect numbers closer to what he put up in 2009 and I am willing to write of 2010 as a fluke.  He is definitely a sleeper worth drafting if you miss out on the other guys.

13. Aramis Ramirez (65 R, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 0 SB, .270 AVG)

Last year he hit 25 HRs in only 124 games after missing much of the first half with a thumb injury.  In a full year he could easily hit 30. But the chances of him staying healthy for a full year are pretty slim.  He has now missed time in each of the last two seasons and at 32 he’s not getting any younger.

14. Ian Stewart (70 R, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 5 SB, .255 AVG)

2010 was supposed to be his breakout year. So was 2009. So was 2008! Sure, 2011 may be his breakout year now but history is not on his side.  I think my projections here are about what you can expect from him.  Don’t draft as your starting 3B if you don’t have to.

15. Michael Young (80 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 5 SB, .300 AVG)

Could he put up 20 HRs this year again? Sure… if he gets the playing time. Problem is, I don’t see him doing that with the Rangers crowded infield/DH situation.  If he gets traded his value might improve, but he’s too risky to have as your starting 3B.

BONUS: Sleeper

Chase Headley

Mike Moustakas

Chris Johnson

My Fantasy Baseball 2011 Rankings

Overall | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | DH | RP | SP | Prospects